The Power of the Pre-Mortem Analysis
Self-Brain Surgery™ helps you anticipate potential failure and achieve success instead
Anticipating Failure to Ensure Success
As we navigate life’s challenges and opportunities, we often look back on past events, analyzing what went wrong and why. But what if we could perform this kind of analysis before an event takes place? What if we could anticipate potential failure and use those insights to improve our chances of success? This is the essence of the Pre-Mortem Analysis—a powerful mental tool that can help us make better decisions, avoid common pitfalls, and direct our efforts with precision.
19th-century psychologist William James once said, “In the practical use of our intellect, forgetting is as important as remembering.” What we choose to focus on—and what we allow to fade into the background—shapes how we experience and interpret reality. This means that if we fixate only on success, we risk overlooking potential obstacles. The Pre-Mortem technique forces us to shift perspective, anticipating challenges so we can navigate them effectively.
Thinking Ahead to Avoid Looking Back in Regret
In medicine, a post-mortem is an autopsy—a careful examination of a body after death to determine what went wrong. In business, post-mortem analyses help teams identify the causes of failed projects to prevent similar mistakes in the future. But in both cases, the analysis comes too late to change the outcome.
A Pre-Mortem Analysis flips this idea on its head. Instead of waiting to examine failure in hindsight, we project ourselves into the future, assume we’ve already failed, and ask:
What went wrong?
Why did this effort, goal, or decision not work out as planned?
Where did the process break down?
What critical factors did we overlook?
Psychologist Gary Klein, who pioneered this concept, found that thinking in this way forces people to identify hidden risks, blind spots, and structural weaknesses in their plans. When we imagine a future failure, we naturally generate solutions that wouldn’t have occurred to us if we had only focused on success.
Imagining Failure to Increase the Odds of Success
The Pre-Mortem is a practical tool that aligns with what we know about the mind and neuroplasticity. The brain operates largely on predictive models, constantly forecasting outcomes based on past experiences. This is why our subconscious can detect warning signs of failure long before we consciously recognize them. By engaging in a structured Pre-Mortem, we harness the brain’s natural predictive abilities, allowing us to make more informed decisions.
Here’s how it works:
Choose a future goal or decision. It could be anything—a business venture, a relationship, a fitness plan, a financial investment, or a spiritual commitment.
Assume it has failed. Mentally transport yourself six months, a year, or even five years into the future. Assume your effort has completely collapsed.
Diagnose the causes. Ask yourself: What happened? What mistakes were made? What did I overlook? What unexpected challenges derailed me?
Extract lessons and refine your approach. With these insights in hand, adjust your strategy now before you make those mistakes.
By engaging in this exercise, we’re essentially running a mental simulation—one that allows us to anticipate challenges and course-correct before they become real.
Nobel-prize winning physicist Richard Feynman once said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” The Pre-Mortem is a way of preventing self-deception. By imagining failure and looking for weaknesses, we force ourselves to confront uncomfortable truths before they derail our efforts.
Biblical Wisdom and the Science of Anticipation
The Bible frequently encourages wisdom and foresight. Proverbs 22:3 says, “The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.” A Pre-Mortem is the act of seeing danger before it arrives—it allows us to recognize potential pitfalls and take proactive steps to mitigate them.
From a neuroscientific perspective, this approach taps into the reticular activating system (RAS), which acts as the brain’s filtering mechanism. When we prime our minds to recognize possible failures, the RAS heightens our awareness of relevant signals in real life. This means that we’re more likely to notice early warning signs and make better decisions in real time.
The Self-Brain Surgery Approach to Smart Decision-Making
Self-Brain Surgery is about taking control of your mind, thoughts, and habits to create better outcomes in your life. A Pre-Mortem is a perfect example of a self-brain surgery operation—it allows you to carve new pathways of thinking, reinforcing a mindset that seeks solutions before problems arise.
Instead of blindly charging forward with optimism, we can combine faith with wisdom, aligning our thinking with God’s guidance. James 1:5 reminds us, “If any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask of God, who gives to all liberally and without reproach, and it will be given to him.” Wisdom isn’t just about knowing what to do—it’s also about anticipating what could go wrong and preparing accordingly.
A Call to Action: Do Your Own Pre-Mortem Today
Think about a major decision you’re facing right now:
What if it doesn’t work out?
What mistakes might you make?
What obstacles could arise?
Take five minutes today to conduct a personal Pre-Mortem. Write down your answers and use them to refine your approach.
Neils Bohr was right—we are both spectators and actors in the unfolding drama of our lives. And while we can’t control everything, we can anticipate, adjust, and prepare. The Pre-Mortem is a tool that gives us the best possible chance of making decisions that lead to growth, resilience, and success.
Lisa and I are praying for you.
Dum spiro spero (While I breathe, I hope),
Lee
Psalm 71:14 (“As for me, I will always have hope.”)
From the banks of the North Platte river on Moon River Ranch in Nebraska, USA
Share this message with someone who needs to learn the life-changing power of self-brain surgery, and we’ll get after it together!
We’re going all in on believing that we have the tools to change our minds and change our lives. Living from a mind-down perspective changes everything, and it will help you harness the transforming power the Bible promises in Romans 12.
And the good news is, you can start today.
Be sure to check out the archive of previous posts if you missed last week’s letter.
If you need a treatment plan to help you overcome any kind of trauma, tragedy, or massive thing in your life, check out my latest book, Hope Is the First Dose*.
This week’s newsletter is sponsored by Zuma Nutrition
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This is really good. I've received advice before that if I plan to fail and plan an alternative path that feels safer I probably will fail and fall onto that path. But part of setting ourselves up for success is asking what could go wrong, while still keeping our eyes on the goal. That will give us a better chance of doing what we need to do to succeed. I like that!
Thanks for sharing! I'm familiar with Tye's work; the multi-functional role of amygdala is well established now. This is fascinating. Might need to get her on the podcast!